Radiation electromagnetic mobile phone masts seems to increase human fertility even though the mechanism remains uncertain. Photography: Malcolm Fife/AlamyMobile phone towers are more likely to procreate people? It might be possible that radiation from mobile phone facilitates somehow fertilization, or perhaps there is just something romantic about mobile phone transmitter mast projection of the landscape?
These questions are our natural learning that the variation in the number of Poles from mobile phone across the country corresponds exactly to the variation in the number of births response. For each additional mast of mobile phone in a region is 17.6 babies more above average national.
It was discovered by taking the data accessible to the public on the number of mobile phone masts in each county across the United Kingdom and matching it then against data of births for the counties of same. When a regression line is calculated that there a "correlation coefficient" (a measure of good game is) to 98.1 100. "Statistically significant" a pattern in a data set must be liable to occur in less than 5% (known as a "p-value") random data and correlation of Poles-births has a probability of 0.00003% of occurring by chance.
The correspondence between the mobile phone towers and birth rates is a very strong correlation and it is very significant. He did y no doubting that most mobile phone masts mean that there will be also birth more mathematical discovery. It is also strict access statistics.
Mobile phone masts, however, have absolutely no impact on the number of births. There is no causal link between the poles and the birth in spite of the strong correlation. Both the number of mobile phone transmitters and the number of births are linked to a third independent factor: the size of the local population. As the population of an area can be traced back, do as the number of mobile phone users and the people number giving birth.
The problem is that our first instinct is to assume that a correlation means that a factor causes the other. While this does not cause a problem using pattern-spots as a tool for advanced survival, it causes serious problems in the assessment of possible alerts for health based on a recently discovered correlation. For the majority of cases, the correlation does not indicate the presence of causality.
To investigate a possible causal link requires carefully mathematical Untangling the correlations of false positives. This is what makes a team of researchers at Imperial College London when they were looking for a link between cancer among children and exposure to radiation from mobile phone transmitters. They got data location for 1.397 children who had undergone a form of childhood cancer. For each of these children, they found and then four random children who were born at the same time, but never had cancer. These two groups of cases were compared in terms of the number and strength of the mobile transmitters when their mothers during pregnancy and early childhood experiences.
This particular study in childhood - cancers with robust study investigating possible links between mobile phones and health - not found no causal link.
But the media lit a correlation in fear of health based on the causal conclusion? To find out, I've published my mobile masts and the results of births as a press release. We'll see if someone jumps to the conclusion that mobile phone radiation can really give design a helping hand.
Listen to Matt discuss its conclusion on more or less, BBC Radio4 at 13 h 30 today, Friday 17 December. Or visit the website of the Guardian Monday, December 20 to see that Matt reports back.
Data sources
Data from "Sitefinder" OFCOM
Data in England and Wales Live birth country
Scotland live birth data
Ireland North Live birth data
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